Investors keep asking one big question: what’s the real return on investment for building in Mexico? The answer hinges on labor arbitrage, logistics, incentives, and peso swings. This 2025 guide crunches the numbers so you can decide fast—and funnel savings into growth, not guesswork.
You’ll find:
- ROI tables comparing Mexico vs U.S. builds by sector
- A five‑year CPI trend chart and FX sensitivity slider
- Payback and IRR benchmarks for factories, hotels, and warehouses
- A free downloadable ROI calculator (Excel)
- Step‑by‑step tips to lock savings and avoid hidden risks
1 — Mexico vs U.S. Cost Snapshot 2025
| Metric | U.S. Build (USD/m²) | Mexico Build (USD/m²) | % Savings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labor (fully loaded) | 590 | 220 | 63 % |
| Industrial shell | 1 150 | 620 | 46 % |
| Commercial office | 2 400 | 1 300 | 46 % |
| Hotel (4‑Star) | 3 600 | 2 050 | 43 % |
| Warehouse lease (sqm/mo) | 9.2 | 4.8 | 48 % |
Sources: CBRE 2025 Industrial Outlook, Tetakawi cost model, Banxico CPI.
Quick take: Labor and shell costs drive an average 45 % CapEx gap—but FX and tariffs can erode gains if unmanaged.
2 — ROI & Payback Benchmarks
2.1 Baseline Factory Model (Electronics, 8 000 m²)
| KPI | U.S. | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Initial CapEx | US $9.2 M | US $5.1 M |
| Annual Opex | US $7.4 M | US $4.3 M |
| Gross Margin | 22 % | 28 % |
| Payback | 4.8 yrs | 3.2 yrs |
| IRR (10 yrs) | 14 % | 24 % |
2.2 Hotel Model (120 keys, Riviera Maya)
| KPI | U.S. Sunbelt | Riviera Maya |
|---|---|---|
| Build Cost | US $31 M | US $24 M |
| ADR | US $180 | US $210 |
| Occupancy | 73 % | 79 % |
| Payback | 8.1 yrs | 6.4 yrs |
| IRR (10 yrs) | 11 % | 17 % |
Check cost‑per‑m² details in our Construction Cost Guide.
3 — Five‑Year CPI Trend (Banxico)
Banxico SIE series, 2015 = 100. Inflation moderates to 5 % YoY in Q1 2025.
4 — FX Sensitivity: Peso vs USD
| USD/MXN Rate | CapEx (MXN → USD) | Opex Year 1 | 10‑Yr IRR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5 (strong USD) | US $4.8 M | US $4.2 M | 26 % |
| 17.0 (baseline) | 5.1 M | 4.3 M | 24 % |
| 18.5 (weak USD) | 5.4 M | 4.5 M | 22 % |
Rule of thumb: Every peso‑per‑dollar shift moves IRR ~1 ppt. Lock FX for materials ≥ US $1 M.
5 — Nearshoring & USMCA Sweeteners
- Tariff avoidance: 62.5 % regional content unlocks 0 % auto duty.
- IMMEX duty deferral: Save 5 % VAT on imported components.
- Section 321 de minimis: Ship parcels < US $800 duty‑free to U.S. customers.
Reuters notes nearshoring could bump Mexico’s manufacturing GDP by US $155 B by 2030—meaning property values likely rise.
6 — Sector‑Specific ROI Drivers
| Sector | Key Driver | ROI Booster |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive | Steel supply in Bajío | Dual‑source coils inside Mexico |
| Electronics | Labor pool depth | Partner with tech universities |
| Warehousing | Cross‑dock speed | Choose sites within 15 km of rail |
| Hotels | ADR vs CapEx | Modular pods cut build time by 20 % |
See location pros/cons in our Site‑Selection Guide.
7 — Inflation & Cost Index Outlook
Banxico forecasts construction CPI easing to 4.2 % by Q4 2025. Materials already plateau; labor climbs 6 % YoY. Build sooner, not later.
8 — Risk & Compliance Impact on ROI
- Permit delays add ~0.6 ppt to IRR per month.
- Missing NOM‑031 safety plan can halt work—3 weeks lost average.
- Seismic upgrades in Zone C raise CapEx 8 % but protect NPV.
Internal link: Slash delay risk with our Due‑Diligence services.
FAQ — Investor Doubts
Is it cheaper to build in Mexico than China?
Yes for medium‑scale projects; Mexico labor is higher but logistics to U.S. saves 10‑20 days of cash‑to‑cash.
How long to break even on a Mexico factory?
Typical payback is 3–4 years versus 5 + years in the U.S.
What ROI should I expect?
Factories: 20–25 % IRR; warehouses: 15–18 %; hotels: 15 %+ if ADR > US $200.
How does inflation affect ROI?
Each 1 % CPI uptick slices IRR ~0.3 ppt unless contracts adjust.
Do tax incentives matter?
Yes—state credits can add 1–2 ppt to IRR; grants shave payback by 6 months.
Case Study — Warehouse ROI, Monterrey
A U.S. 3PL priced a 20 000 m² cross‑dock in Texas at US $180 M CapEx. SER Projects steered them to Monterrey, cutting CapEx 48 % and shaving freight to Dallas by 10 hrs. Payback dropped from 6.1 yrs to 3.7 yrs.
